Wednesday 10 September 2014

10 questions for AAP on Delhi Political Scenario

Questions for Aam Aadmi Party

Context: Recent Sting Op, LG as BJP-Agent and Fresh Elections in Delhi
  1. If LG is BJP-agent,  
    • Why #AAP hasn't demanded LG's resignation?  
    • Why AAP not go to President and ask for LG's re-call?
  2. If AAP really want elections, why AAP MLAs not resign en-mass and force elections that way?
  3. If AAP is not interested in forming the government in Delhi, why LG not explore option with single largest party as the last resort, which is constitutionally allowed?
  4. Why should Delhi be burdened with another election in less then a year which can cost up to INR 100Cr?
  5. Why AAP MLA Dinesh Mohaniya went to  BJP person's home in the first place? A motivated Sting?
  6. BJP Guy (the accused) has appeared on various TV channels and explained his position vis-a-vis the String Op.  But why AAP MLA Dinesh Mohaniya not appearing on TV channels and discuss/debate his side of the sting story?  
  7. Has AAP consulted with legal luminaries if this Sting is legally tenable?  Few guys just talking and talking.  What can be proved with this? Can people not talk at their places?
  8. For a sting to be reliable, concrete give-n-take has to happen. Nothing has happen in this case. Where is the money (if exchanged at all) or any signed document etc.?
    • In #CashForVotes sting, money exchanged hands and money was produced as evidence. Yet court didn't do anything.
    • In #JMM bribery case, money exchanged hands and was conclusively proved (via bank accounts) yet bribe-givers were let-off by the courts
  9. If AAP MLAs are honest, why not sit tight and let LG explore the options? 
    • Even if LG invite BJP, defeat it on the floor of the house if all AAP MLAs are honest and against BJP forming the government!
  10. If AAP at all care for Delhi people, why don't they form the government again with Congress? If later refuse, it will expose them!

Saturday 14 June 2014

Is Congress quest for Leader of Opposition in 16th LS justified?

As the debate rages on the issue of LoP (Leader of Opposition) in 16th Loksabha, thought to bring some historical facts and thoughts on various aspects.


Issue

In 16th Loksabha, BJP is the single largest party with 282 seats, followed by Congress with 44, AIADMK with 37, TMC with 34 and BJD with 20 seats. Since no party crossed more then 10% seats (i.e. 55), No LoP is designated yet and  Speaker of Loksabha is deliberating on this. Congress has written a formal letter, requesting to be assigned LoP on grounds of past traditions.

History

Brief history on who were the LoPs in various Loksabha tenures since independence:

Legal

Rule: Mr. G. V. Mavalankar , the first Speaker of the Loksabha, has formulated the rule: A party must have at least ten per cent of the strength of the House in order to qualify to be designated as a Parliamentary Party and the leader of the largest such Parliamentary Party in the opposition ranks is designated Leader of the Opposition.  This rule has been followed since then, with no exception.

Precedence: 6 of the earlier Loksabha tenures witnessed the situation of no parties (other then the ruling party) having more then 10% of the seats. Consequently,  LoP remained vacant during those tenures. So no precedence of any relaxation in the rule:

  • In 1st LS, CPI was the 2nd largest party with 16 seats as against 364 of congress
  • In 2nd LS, CPI was the 2nd largest party with 27 seats as against 371 of congress
  • In 3rd LS, CPI was the 2nd largest party with 29 seats as against 361 of congress
  • In 5th LS, CPM was the 2nd largest party with 25 seats as against 352 of congress. CPI with 23 and BJS with 22 seats were other opposition parties
  • In 8th LS, JNP(S) was the 2nd largest party with 41 seats as against 353 of congress. CPM with 37 and JNP with 31 seats were other opposition parties
  • In 9th LS, TDP was the 2nd largest party with 30 seats as against 404 of congress. CPM with 22, ADMK with 12 and JNP with 10 seats were other opposition parties

Arguments

  • Don't go by numbers and be generous:  As Congress got 44 seats and fell short by only 10 (for 55), argument is made that the rule can be given a go-by. Another argument given by congress that they are 55+ considering pre-poll alliance with NCP (6), RJD (4), JMM(2). 
    • This author feels that both these arguments don't stand legally if scrutinized against the rule. As congress didn't show any inclination on earlier occasions to relax this rule, there is No reason for BJP to do this relaxation in this LS tenure
    • If alliance has to be considered as a criteria for LoP, then it has to consider any alliance i.e. pre or post poll alliance. In that case, let there be a contest for LoP and all parties be given a fair chance for it.
  • LoP plays role in key appointments: Some congress supporters say that LoP participates in key central appointments (i.e. Head of CBI, CVC, CEC, Lokpal and few others) and hence it has to be designated. Author opines that LoP role in these appointments have been largely ceremonial and it's views were mostly disregarded. Here are few examples:
    • Sushma Swaraj, LoP in 15th LS, opposed appointment of K. V. Thomas as CVC but Primer Minister Manmohan Singh ignore and went ahead with the appointment. Later this went to SC, who struck down the appointment
    • Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley voiced concerns on CBI Chief and Lokpal selections.  They were all over-looked as  LoP was the only opposition in the selection panel 
    • Hence, LoP in appointments, need to be revisited separately and a more reliable mechanism need to be formed so that LoP opinions are heard and addressed in an acceptable manner
  • Ignore history: This is the most funny argument given  by congress supporters to do a new beginning and accord the LoP to congress as it is the oldest party and BJP should start a new precedence.  This author is of the view that such views may not be encouraged and speaker should go by rules.   Congress has the history of ignoring traditions and not following rules, so no relaxation to congress. Let Congress learn the hard way..

Conclusion

  • Legally,  Congress does not qualify to get LoP.
  • Conventionally,  There is no tradition to accord LoP to a party with < 10% seats. Congress itself is responsible for this as they never broken this convention since inception.
  • Morally,  Congress should shed it's sense of entitlement (On the pretext of having ruled the country for 60 years and being the oldest party.) and refrain from asking for LoP as they don't met the criteria. They should learn from the drubbing in 2014 elections and focus on rebuilding the party.
  • Ethically, As rule doesn't allow, one shouldn't ask to tweak the rule. If any tweak is considered, then it should be an open contest with all parties to get fair shot at LoP. 
Finally some gems from SM on LoP:


References


Wednesday 21 May 2014

Kejriwal Arrest and Politics Of Misguided Protests

Despite the serious drubbing in recently concluded Loksabha Elections 2014,  Aam Aadmi Party is back to its politics of unnecessary confrontation and misguided protests... 

Let's take a look at what happened:


Nitin Gadkari (Ex BJP President)'s defamation case against Arvind Kejriwal came up for hearing in court. Judge asked if he can prove charges against Gadkari,  he kept silent. Judge then asked him to get bail (as case is criminal defamation one), to which he said he don't want to get bail and fine to go to jail. Judge agreed and sent him to jail and posted the matter for further hearing, 2 days later..



Familiar politics of justification / arguments started by #AAP supporters:




and then AAP supporters started protests at Tihar jail .. as if he was jailed for wrong reasons .. familiar tactics to get people to Tihar...


Why these protests are misguided and wrong?
  1. Arvind Kejriwal himself asked to go to Jail, instead of getting bail, as described in image-1 above
  2. He is was not forcibly arrested or anything..
  3. Protest in front of Tihar, on a busy road is completely unjustifiable and created problems for regular commuters. Why not do the protests at Jantar-Mantar as that is the designated place for protests in Delhi??
  4. This protest exercise seems to be an attempt to draw attention as protest in-front of Tihar jail got them much missed TV coverage..
  5. People have already given mandate against Aam Aadmi Party in Elections-2014 but they seemed to have learnt no lessons and still going ahead with bogus politics of protests and creating anarchy once again. This is  all in garb of fight-against-corruption which was soundly rejected by the electorate as it was deemed suspect by the people,  because of dishonest intentions of many AAP leaders...


Hoping AAP leaders take some time off and think about people verdict with cool minds and then decide next course of action of them in India politics ..

One thing for sure.. days of mindless protests are over !!

Tail Piece (for fun)
Funny excuses for not taking bail (from twitter)

(1)
दोस्तों तिहाड़ में कोई मोदी लहर नहीं है,हमे भारी जनसमर्थन मिल रहा है,सारे इक्कठे हो जाओ नौकरियां छोड़ के तिहाड़ में आ जाओ : @ArvindKejriwal

(2)

अरविन्द केजरीवाल का कहना है की जब हमारे 99% प्रत्याक्षीयों की जमानत जब्त हो गयी तो मैं जमानत ले कर क्या करूँगा ..
....
बहुत ही क्रांतिकारी ....

Saturday 17 May 2014

What Narendra Modi should do in first 6 months?

My wishlist / suggestions / expectations from Narendra Modi's tenure, as Prime Minister of India, for first 6 months:




1) Unlock the truth behind some long-time secrets by releasing the classified documents held by PMO/GoI:
  • Death of Subhash Chandra Bose
  • Death of Syama Prasad Mookerjee
  • Death of Lal Bahadur Shastri
  • Henderson Brooks - Bhagat report on India/China 1962 War
2) Unravel the Black Money trail
  • Make public, 26 account holders in Liechtenstein Bank (in Germany), which Congress refused to do so far
  • Make public all black-money details which has been received so far
  • Make public Hasan Ali's foreign accounts and whose money he was/is managing
3) Initiate re-inquiries in following scams, with mandate to complete in a fixed time-frame (e.g. up-to 18 months max):
  • Cash For Votes Scams - 2008
  • 2G Spectrum Scam
  • Commonwealth Games Scam
  • Coal Scam
  • Augusta Westland Chopper Scam
  • Bofors Bribes Scam
  • Robert Vadra Land Dealings
  • Riots (1984-Delhi, 2012-Assam)
4) Start consensus building on key Public-interest legislations 
  • Lokpal
  • Autonomy for CBI
  • Police Reforms
5) Postings / Others
  • Remove congress appointed political governors and replace them with non-political / educated scholars
  • Initiate proceedings to get rid of incompetent people from constitutional posts and plan to appoint more qualified people
    • Chief Election Commissioner
    • CBI Director
    • RBI Governor 
  • No travel to America (Worst case, meet US president in Europe or in India itself)

Wishing Good Luck to Narendra Modi and his team !!

And.. I will be watching and reminding regularly :)

Decoding Modi Mandate 2014

Takeaways from Mandate-2014



  • Single party majority for the first time since 1984 elections
    • 2 out of 3 BJP candidates won (282 of 428 contested)
    • 1 out of 10 Congress candidates won (44 of 457 contested)
    • 1 out of 100 AAP candidates won (4 of 443 contested)
  • Complete sweep in many states:
    • Rajasthan (25/25)
    • Gujarat (26/26)
    • Delhi (7/7)
    • HP (4/4)
    • Uttarakhand (5/5)
    • Goa (2/2)
  • Near sweep in many states:
    • UP (73/80)
    • Chhattisgarh (10/11)
    • MP (27/29)
    • Jharkhand (12/14)
    • Maharashtra (42/46)
    • Haryana (7/10)
  • Great performance in tough states
    • Assam (7/14)
    • Karnataka (17/28)
    • Bihar (31/40)
    • J&K (3 of 6)
  • All Muslim dominated seats in UP, won by BJP
  • Performance of congress ministers is rejected
    • All Congress ministers from UP/Rajasthan lost
    • 18 of 21 cabinet ministers lost
    • Loksabha Speaker Meira Kumar also lost
    • Here is list of Big losers
  • Complete rout of disruptive parties
Party Party Chief 2009 Seats 2014 Seats
Bahujan Samaj Party Mayawati 21 0
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Karunanidhi 18 0
National Conference Farooq Abdullah 3 0
Rashtriya Lok Dal Ajit Singh 5 0
  • Aam Aadmi Party -> Party is over !!
    • 421 of 443 candidates lost deposit
    • All top shots (including Vishwas, Sanyal, Pratap, Mayanak, Yogendra, Medha) finished 4th or 5th, indicating their irrelevance in LS electoral politics and rejection of their negative campaign against BJP/Modi 
    • AAP finished 2nd in all Delhi seats, indicating they are still relevant in Delhi and perhaps should  have focused only in Delhi, rather all India venture
    • Victory on 4 seats in Punjab is more to do with SAD's failure in tacking local issues, then AAP popularity
  • Some uncomfortable aspects came out as well which are listed here Mandate2014 - Uncomfortable Aspects

In the end victory (282-BJP, 336-NDA) is enitrely of Narendra Modi and he truely dserves this mandate due to the  massive campaign he led against the failure of Congress / UPA and promise of positivity ..

Go Modi !!

Friday 16 May 2014

AAP's denial continues ...

Aam Aadmi Party and continued denial from reality



  • Beginning was actually made in Delhi elections in Dec-2013 but AAP frittered it away with its premature exit from Delhi Government on flimsy grounds
  • All top-shots leaders of AAP has lost in 2014 and ended up in 4th/5th positions with a few at 3rd
  • 421 of 443 AAP candidates lost deposit, indicating the uselessness of fighting on so many seats all over India
  • Only in Delhi, AAP finished second in all seats, indicating loss of some ground since Dec'13 but not very significantly
  • Winning 4 seats from Punjab is more to do with local disenchantment with Shriomani Akali Dal as well as Congress. So it can be called a trial victory at best as Punjab desperately was looking for 3rd alternative
  • High profile candidates in Mumbai, Bangalore lost badly with majority losing deposits
  • BJP winning all 26 seats from Gujarat indicates hollowness of AAP campaign to go after Gujarat Model and Adani barbs
  • Arvind Kejriwal losing from Varanasi by 3.70 Lakh votes, despite high profile campaigning by all AAP leaders. This indicates how badly he miscalculated by fighting from Varanasi
  • Delhi performance (2nd position in all seats) indicates that AAP could have done well there, had they continued focus on Delhi, instead of all over India
  • Campaign of blaming BJP (and by lumping BJP with Congress on corruption issues) has miserably failed, as evident from BJP getting absolute majority on its own
  • No congratulatory message to Modi/BJP from AAP leaders indicating how similar they are with congress and their Modi/BJP hate still intact

AAP has to realize it can't become an overnight success every time.  Delhi-2013 was an exception and now they need to focus on real issues with honest intentions before public can trust them again. Negative politics will not work, period !!

10 uncomfortable aspects of Mandate 2014


  1. All non-NDA seats in UP going to 2 families only
    • SP (5) - all gone to Mulayam Singh family
    • Congress (2) - both gone to Sonia Gandhi Family
  2. Shashi Tharoor won and BJP missing to open it's account in Kerala once again
  3. Massive victory of some of the regional satraps, will be of no use as these MPs with neither play opposition, nor support ruling party 
    • AIADMK in Tamilnadu (37 of 39)
    • TMC in West Bengal (34 of 42)
    • BJD in Odisha (20 of 21)
  4. Loss of Arun Jaitley due to local politics of Amritsar
  5. Amethi and Rae Bareli sending the Gandhis (Rahu and Sonia) again which will be of no benefit to the people of these constituencies
  6. Mixed verdict from Punjab which has sent 4 AAP MPs and Capt Amarinder Singh of congress.  
  7. Paswan's party winning all 6 seats, it contested. 3 of them are won by Paswan and his family members
  8. Ashok Chawan of Congress (Adarsh Scam fame) wining from Nanded, Maharastra seat
  9. M. Veerappa Moily (former petroleum minister, considered close to Ambani) winning from Chikkaballapur, Karnataka
  10. Pappu Yadav of RJD winning from Madhepura, Bihar, though he defeated Sharad Yadav.